Donetsk encirclement unlocked. Russian regular squads enter the city.

UKRAINE - In Brief 01 Sep 2014 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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Situation at the eastern front has aggravated over the last few days. Russian army made a decisive move from south to cut off Ukrainian forces from supplies what made Ukrainian regular army to retreat. Unfortunately, several volunteer battalions have been encircled and totally destroyed – hundreds of soldiers killed. We do not have clear picture why volunteer battalions did not retreat with regular army. Many believe that authorities in this way made a revenge on volunteers who threatened to punish officials for continued corruptions when battalions are back from war. But much more probable explanation for the tragedy is that volunteer battalions refused to withdraw having poor confidence to the authorities and, subsequently, to commanders of regular army. What is next? Russian regular army advance has offset military progress of recent month. Moscow has deployed very limited contingent so far (near 15 thnd soldiers) and it is very likely Kremlin will be pressing on Kyiv with demand to recognize “Donetsk republic” and “Luhansk republic”. Further developments will depend on reaction of the west. For sure, Ukraine will not be able to fight in organized manner with Russia one by one for long which means guerrilla war against Russia if EU and the US step aside. At the same time we do not see political possibility for Poroshenko to accept Kremlin demands – that will trigger new Maidan in Kyiv promptly (again we will have guerrilla war as an outcome). Against this backdrop the only way out for Poroshenko is to prepare for long-standing resistance and negotiate sharing military costs with the west. Readiness of developed countries to take some burden of this war at least fina...