Draft budget 2019: No gas prices increase included

UKRAINE - In Brief 18 Sep 2018 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
Yesterday, on September 17 details of draft budget 2019 have been released. Spending plan was suggested unusually modest as for the election year: spending increased only 10.4% y/y. However, for some reason housing subsidies have been cut down to UAH 55.1 billion vs. UAH 77.1 billion envisaged for this year. Housing subsidies used to increase if heating tariffs and gas tariffs are planned to grow. But for some reason potential increase of gas prices have not been reflected at the spending plan 2019. No details on gas prices were found at the published documents. No obvious explanation why gas prices have been omitted and very likely we will see new numbers as soon as deal with the IMF is reported to public. Current draft budge envisages 2.3% of GDP central budget deficit. The Cabinet anticipates 3% of GDP growth and 7.4% ytd consumers’ inflation. The numbers are very close to our estimates. No traditional pre-election attarctions have been found at the draft budget 2019. Below you can find more details on draft budget submitted to the parliament.

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