Draft Budget Lacks Policy Turn

HUNGARY - Report 10 Nov 2014 by Istvan Racz
Executive Summary Monthly indicators reflect still significant growth but also a marked slowdown in industry and construction, exports, wages and retail sales. This cooling trend started 4-5 months ago, and it will likely be reinforced by a weakening Europe and post-election fiscal tightening in late 2014 and in 2015. EU transfers are being distributed at a 7-8% of GDP annual rate. This trend will probably continue until mid-2015, when funds under the outrunning 2007-2013 EU budget will have been fully utilized. But the inflow of transfers will drop markedly from H2 2015, as funds under the...

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