Dream summer is here, will it survive X-mas?

TURKEY - Report 02 Jun 2024 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Two months after local elections, the political analyst is able to see the end of the current political disequilibrium. In the base-case scenario, the process culminates in early elections in 2027 or 2028, which would give Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet’s Simsek’s economic stabilization program a decent chance for success, though it is by no means certain that President Erdogan will allow the required sacrifices to be made to achieve results.

The less likely scenario entails early elections in the second half of 2025, but no later, which will be deleterious for the stabilization program. Also, this scenario could increase the prospects of a CHP candidate toppling Erdogan.

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