Dull-ish politics, weird-ish economics
With the onset of schools’ summer vacation and the approach of Muslims’ greatest holiday, Eid al Adha, domestic politics is expected to enter a short lull, from which it will awaken in August. We don’t expect any major developments on election timing or the nomination of a presidential candidate by the opposition until then. Parenthetically, the politics author’s hypothesis of a currency shock will also be delayed until late July at the earliest.
In foreign policy, visits by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo will be highlights of the week. Neither are likely to produce groundbreaking revelations or changes in policy, however. The idea of Turkey midwifing Ukraine grain transports to the world markets appears dead. Loud objections by Russia and US may have postponed a military campaign in Syria, too, though the plan is still alive.
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