Earthquake: This disaster will reformat Turkey, full stop

TURKEY - In Brief 07 Feb 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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It is my job to make sense of this calamity, to write a few words that go beyond shock and pain, that describe the losses which mount with each passing moment, to make predictions, even if very tentative. All I can say at this juncture is that this is truly a Black Swan event, which will completely reset Turkish economy and politics. Worse, we shall not know what had happened until months later. I’m immediately cutting to the chase to explain what I mean: From my viewpoint as the guy who analyses politics: No reliable polls will be held for at least a month, as it is simply impossible and unethical to survey the ca 15 million inhabitants of the disaster zone. I don’t know whether elections can be held amidst the destruction. How will voter rolls be updated, with possibly millions of people migrating out of the zone? Where will polling stations be situated, if as eyewitness accounts confirm Kahramanmaras and Hatay are utterly destroyed in a physical sense?Can anyone blame Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance, if State of Emergency, or even Martial Law is declared to prevent hunger, looting and profiteering? From the viewpoint of economics, I say Except external balance and financial data, everything will be inadequately measured, including inflation, because there are very few functioning stores in the disaster zone.Our view about BoP may change, as pledges of aid pour in from the rest of the world. Needless to say, these are my personal views, with the last word belonging to my partner Murat Ucer. I shall not criticize the government, or the opposition for at least a week, because it is grossly unfair and unconscionable to expect satisfactory disaster relief efforts amidst...