Economic activity: A new frustration of expectations

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Jun 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

After the weak GDP result for the first quarter, some signs of better performance emerged in April. Unfortunately, however, even before the truckers’ strike (which put paid to any expectations of faster recovery), those signs were already changing for the worse, making the diagnosis even clearer that the economy is still subdued. The truckers’ strike had a strong contractionary effect in May, and the disastrous way the government reacted to the crisis reduced public confidence even more and prolonged its effects. Although it is too early to project GDP growth in 2018 with reasonable certainty, all indications are that it will be significantly shy of 2%, somewhere between 1% and 1.5%, with strong bias for the lower limit.

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