Economic Activity: Recent Signs and Trend

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 May 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

There are clear signs that the economy remains weak. The numbers announced last week – the IBC-Br, which is a preview of GDP calculated by the Central Bank, and real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE – confirm this perception. In March the IBC-Br dipped by 0.1%, leading to first-quarter growth of 0.3%, or an annualized rate of 1.2% (Graph 1), near the estimate produced by our leading indicator. With this, the carry-over to the second quarter was -0.1%, meaning that the outlook for weak growth probably will not revert in the short run. The real retail sales figures for March point in the same direction: in the restricted sense (without cars and construction materials), they fell 0.5%, while in the augmented sense they declined 1.2%.

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