Economic growth remained strong in November

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 16 Dec 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Recent monthly updates from the Bureau of National Statistics show that economic growth in November stayed strong, matching the pace of previous months. The short-term indicator, a monthly proxy for economic activity, grew by 9.1% y-o-y in 11M25, the same rate recorded in 9M25 and 8M25. Transportation and warehousing (up 20.3%), construction (14.7%), trade (8.8%), and industry (7.4%) were the fastest-growing segments y-o-y in 11M24, while agriculture and communications grew by 6.1% and 3.8% respectively.This year, the short-term indicator is growing much faster than GDP (the latter rose by 6.3% y-o-y in 9M25), given that other sectors like education, finance, healthcare, government administration, and others are seeing only low single-digit growth—or even some y-o-y declines. With the short-term indicator showing steady gains in recent months, it’s looking more likely that GDP in 2025 could grow by roughly the same 6.3% as in 9M25.Right now, there don’t seem to be any major factors that could shift the current situation in either direction in the short term. For example, household credit growth in November rose by 1.3% m-o-m, moderately outpacing October’s growth. Since this increase was well above inflation, retail sales also grew strongly—up 7.3% y-o-y in 11M25 (with wholesale trade climbing over 9.0% y-o-y). With inflation still elevated in 4Q25 (though averaging lower m-o-m than in 4Q24), the NBK will likely keep the base rate steady for now, with little expected impact on consumer demand.