Economic performance improves in April

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 04 Jun 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

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Rosstat reported that Russia’s economic performance looked better in early 2021 than was earlier reported. The statistical agency revised upward previously published monthly data for services, transportation, and some other segments of the economy. Apart from agriculture (which was almost flat y-o-y), April’s statistics looked even better as a result. As known, there are strong base effects, but even the m-o-m growth of key indicators looked much better than average (GKEM Analytica refrains from referring to the seasonally adjusted time series as sharp swings that happened last year and permanent revisions of previously published numbers can produce skewed seasonally adjusted results). We mentioned earlier that industry was up by 7.2% and 1.1% y-o-y in April and 4M21 despite still reduced OPEC+ quotas for oil extraction as manufacturing growth was strong. Freight transportation was up by 6.2% and 1.9% y-o-y over the same periods. Retail sales increased by 34.7% and 5.9%, paid consumer services – by 52.1% and 6.2%, construction was up by 6.9% and 2.2% respectively (also y-o-y over the same periods). As a result, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade including retail and wholesale, transportation) was up by 3.6% y-o-y in 4m21. Meanwhile, investment in production capacity was up by 2.0% y-o-y in 1Q21 (statistics is published quarterly only).GKEM Analytica needs some time to digest these numbers, reconcile them with national accounts and come up with an updated macroeconomic forecast, which may be published either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week. April’s statistics and upward revisions of the previously published data create an ...