Economic performance in May: mixed results

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Jun 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for an aggregate measure of the country’s economic activity) grew by 4.5% in 5M23 y-o-y, which looks decent. However, in 4M23 and 1Q23, y-o-y growth rates were higher – 5.5% and 5.1%. Amid significant base effects in recent years amid the pandemic, protests in Kazakhstan, and Russia’s special military operation, y-o-y cumulative numbers may obscure short-term monthly changes, especially if either m-o-m or monthly y-o-y statistical data are unavailable. Therefore, we often don’t feel comfortable and convinced while digging into Kazakh economic statistics, as the latter is the case. Understanding what happens in the economy requires additional effort. For instance, since 2023, the Bureau of National Statistics stopped publishing y-o-y growth numbers by individual months. So far, only March (7.1% y-o-y) growth number is available for the short-term indicator. Statistics m-o-m remains unavailable in principle for this indicator. Hence capturing short-term deviations from the trend line and capturing tipping points is not easy, but in the forthcoming report, we’ll try to offer some conclusions on these matters. Note that complete sets of m-o-m, y-o-y, and intra-year cumulative y-o-y data are available for industry, retail trade, wholesale trade, and communications segments (combined about one-half of GDP) and, in some cases, y-o-y and m-o-m data do not match each other. But at least one can estimate the errors. At a glance, it looks as though Kazakhstan’s economic performance was mixed in May as the trade segment (retail and wholesale combined) grew by over 10% y-o-y in 5M23. Retail sa...