Economics: Activity slowdown projected to continue and deepen in 2025
The 4Q24 economic indicators point to a continued and deepening slowdown for 2025. 4Q GDP clocked in at a lackluster seasonally adjusted annual 0.6%. This result brought 2024 GDP growth to 1.5%, in line with estimates and less than half the 2023 result. We project weak 0.3% GDP growth for 2025 that could be revised to a lower figure.
Agriculture performed particularly poorly, posting a -4.6% decline in 4Q and a -2.5% decrease for the year. The scenario does not look good for 2025, as the probable U.S. tariff imposition will surely have its effect. In other news, on the brighter side, the unemployment rate fell to 2.43% of the economically active population in 4Q.
The country’s trade balance in 2024 was 8.21 billion dollars in the red, nearly 3 billion dollars higher than in 2023. This was due to a much smaller surplus in the non-oil balance, 1.83 billion dollars compared to 13.09 billion dollars a year earlier. The big question on everyone’s mind is how great the negative effects on the Mexican economy will be from Donald Trump’s decision, announced this past Saturday, to impose a 25% tariff on the country’s exports to the United States. Although tariffs were put on hold for a month this Monday, recent events demonstrate the uncertainty that will persist regarding the fulfillment and withdrawal of trade threats, with clear consequences on investment decisions.
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