Economy and politics, too hot for comfort

TURKEY - Report 12 Nov 2023 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Turkey is back to the days when each morning brings a new shock, a new crisis. This week’s menu was topped by vicious sniping between two of Turkey’s three highest courts, with ostensibly one of the rivals being provoked by Messrs. Erdogan and Bahceli. By Sunday, Ankara was close to a constitutional crisis, potentially with negative repercussions for foreign policy and the markets. What is President Erdogan trying to do and how bad can it get?

In foreign affairs, Erdogan escalated his verbal attacks on Israel, this time joined by an extraordinary assembly of Islamic states. The class-action criticism of Israel provides cover for Erdogan’s outbursts among Western partners, but makes it very difficult for the Grand Assembly to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession. Consequently, the F-16 deal with the US will most likely be delayed until after March 2024 local elections.

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