Economy keeps expanding in February, still unevenly

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Mar 2023 by Alexander Kudrin

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Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2M23, the short-term indicator that captures aggregate economic activity industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications grew by 4.0% y-o-y. Industrial output increased by 1.6% y-o-y (by 0.5% in the mining segment and by 2.5% in the manufacturing). In February alone, mining contracted by 0.2% y-o-y, while manufacturing grew by 3.4%. Retail sales jumped by 12.9% y-o-y in 2M23 and 6.5% y-o-y in February – mainly due to the low base effect. Activity in the transport sector increased by 1.5% in February but contracted by 0.3% in 2M23 (both y-o-y). The similar numbers in communications were 6.5% and 12.0%. Economic activity was quite uneven across regions and other segments of the economy. The structure of the Kazakh foreign trade also saw some structural transformation. For example, the share of Russia in Kazakhstan’s imports shrank in February to 26.46% of total imports, while a year or two ago, it hovered around 40%. The share of the EU in January was 18.05%, and China’s share became comparable with that of Russia (23.94%). The percentage of the US was 4.28%. These three economic areas accounted for nearly three-quarters of Kazakh imports in January. In the rest of the year, Russia’s share of Kazakhstan’s imports will likely decrease further. Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin