Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time frame.
President Noboa shows an advantage in voters’ intentions that ranges from 3% to 10% over those of Luisa Gonzalez—according to polls taken between December 29-January 15. In some of them, he still has a chance of winning in the first round as he might be able to keep his vote intention over 40% with a distance of at least 10% over Gonzalez. We do not believe these numbers will be greatly affected by the presidential debate that took place last Sunday.
And this is despite the economic and social impact of the electricity blackouts during the past quarter–a concern that about 10% of the population deems the most urgent to be solved by the next government. Violence and persistent insecurity problems are the Number One threat according to 53% of Ecuadorians, and the poor economic performance and high levels of inadequate employment worries 28% of citizens.
The abovementioned voter intention numbers defeat fears that Noboa might not advance to the second electoral round given the ongoing problematic case of the vice president’s status and Noboa’s apparent violation of the law when he decided not to ask for a license while the presidential campaign was ongoing. The fact that just 5% of the population is concerned about politically related problems might explain this result.
However, there are other variables that should be included in the equation. At least 50% of the population feels worried, frustrated and/or uncertain and sad about the future of the country and the ability of the next government to change the current gloomy economic perspective. This dark mood translates (according to polls) into a high, 50% level of indecision on their presidential choice at a time when elections are less than a month away. Thus, we take election poll results with a grain of salt, but we believe that the worst-case scenario is a second round between Noboa and Gonzalez.
As interesting and important as the presidential elections are the results for the legislature. Legislators are elected in the first round. Voters can vote for one candidate for president and for the party list of another candidate. This historical outcome has resulted in a highly fragmented Assembly that in the last four years has kept the president as a hostage, under continuous blackmail. This harsh situation precipitated the cross-death decision taken by former President Lasso in 2023.
On the bright side, polls also show an advantage of 40% for Noboa’s ADN party, over 28% for Revolucion Ciudadana, Correa’s party, for the Assembly. This could imply a simple majority for Noboa if he is elected, facilitating further agreements.
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