Eid developments in Turkish politics

TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jul 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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Nothing ground-breaking transpired in Turkish politics during the 9-day Eid of Ramadan holiday, but the scene is going to heat up very quickly. I thought it would be wise to summarize the recent developments and how they might affect the risk and opportunity prolife of investments. Turkey pushing ahead with “fewer foes, more friends” policy: After Israel and Russia, Ankara heralded that an official team will be dispatched to Cairo to test the waters for a potential rapprochement with Mr. Sisi. In theory, this is easy. Sisi wants Erdogan to recognize his legitimacy and possibly the expulsion of a couple dozen extreme Moslem Brotherhood members who are inciting trouble from Istanbul. In practice, Erdogan having built a good portion of his domestic policy platform on objection to Sisi coup, the U-turn is rife with trouble. Already, there is an unusual amount of grumbling from the traditionally subservient pro-AKP press about the peace deal with Israel. I think Erdogan will go ahead with the Egyptian hand shake, but the sudden change-of-course could cause him popularity at home. Syria: Of course, the most pressing need is to amend the Syrian policy, but I see no signs of a serious re-think there. Turkish press reports that Ankara offered Russia a new plan to let Assad rule for six months before new elections and a new government wherein he will abdicate power. Clearly, this is a no-go for Assad, whose forces have finally laid siege to Aleppo. Idlip Province is under very heavy pressure, too. Ankara needs to make up its mind quickly, because a new flood of refugees could be on their way to the border. More bad news from Syria is that Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces are...