Ekrem Imamoglu banned from politics, pending appeals

TURKEY - In Brief 14 Dec 2022 by Atilla Yesilada

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IMPORTANT NOTICE OF ABSENCE: I shall be off the grid between 15 December and 6 January for family arrangements. I may not be able to respond to client inquiries in the interim. Pls contact GSP NYC office of Dr Murat Ucer’s Istanbul office in case of emergencies. An Istanbul court convicted Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to 2 years in prison, which automatically carries a ban from holding any elected office, which also covers his current position as mayor. However, the sentence only goes into effect after a two-stage appeals process. This is clearly a politically-motivated verdict, the felony being “defaming High Election Board”. In my view, it is not a show of force by Erdogan, but a sign of increasing desperation about his fear of losing even the presidential election. Imamoglu’s conviction sets in motion a train of events, which might drastically alter the course of politics on the way to 2023 elections. In this Market Brief, I go over potential repercussions, where the conclusions are subject to further study. There is little doubt even among some AKP heavyweights, like Bulent Arinc, that the conviction is politically motivated. The objective is primarily to cast Imamoglu’s potential presidential candidacy in doubt. Secondly, it may be the opening move for a pincer movement by the Interior Ministry to remove him from office. Recently, Interior minister Soylu claimed Mersin and Istanbul municipalities have employed “thousands” of PKK members and sympathizers without advancing any proof. Imamoglu’s legal team will appeal the verdict first in the appellate court, and then at Yargitay, the High Administrative Court. Usually, the appeals process could take years. IF it is...