Election Monitor IV: Optimistic politicians and unpredictable voters

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 21 May 2024 by Iraj Abedian

In less than 10 days, on May 29, the SA voters will have their day to express their preferences and put an end to the current cacophony of political noise, baseless promises and over-optimistic expectations of many political leaders.

Recently, the country’s top court, the Constitutional Court made a profound declaration barring ex-President Zuma from becoming a member of the Parliament again this year due to his previous 15-month prison sentence for defying court orders back in 2021. However, his photo could appear on the election ballots as the leader of the MK Party. This brings to an end a fairly contentious legal and political saga within the current highly contested electioneering campaign.

Jacob Zuma and his co-founders of the MK Party were confident that he would be able to become a member of the Parliament and the country’s president again. They launched their party’s electoral manifesto on Sunday, May 19, confirming many of their tribal and traditional strategic and political objectives. The top court verdict is a major blow for the MK Party and its financial backers, both inside and outside the country.

One possible outcome, according to projections, is that the ANC will succeed in securing 45% or more of the votes but fall short of the key 50% mark. In this case, the ANC will lead the coalition government with the help of a few of the smaller parties. This would also be largely a stable coalition given the dominance of the ANC. However, the stability of the coalition might not necessarily equate with the efficacy of governance with regard to improved service delivery and more growth-friendly policy reforms.

The second possibility is one in which the ANC’s electoral support falls below 40%, and the coalition would demand a far more complex and strategic choice. In this eventuality, the growing consensus among the political strategists is that the ANC would enter into a coalition with the DA and the IFP—turning the coalition into a government of national unity. Such a coalition would be less stable and more complex to manage. Yet, its formation would possibly best serve the national interests of the country.

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