Election Notes-II: Turkey, a divided nation

TURKEY - In Brief 15 May 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

---

Nearly 20 hours have passed since the first ballot results were announced, but only the rough outlines of the outcome are certain. Even news sites have not yet begun to print commentary on what happened, or how it happened. I would understand if my audience expresses frustration with the vacuity of these Market Briefs, but I have almost no data for analysis. My comments under these conditions will be of in the nature of notes, with more analytical updates to come starting Tuesday. Erdogan and the Republic Alliance (RI) once again outperformed the polls in terms of actual results achieved. On the other hand, the 50-50 split in both races indicate Turkey is now a country divided right in the middle. Erdogan will likely win the second round, but he is not the kind of leader who could heal wounds, the economic damage and accumulated anger in the election campaign. The victory of the RI in the Grand Assembly (GA) with 323 seats is not likely to change despite what I expect to become a deluge of appeals. By securing one of the two pillars of the government, Erdogan guaranteed the survival of his regime to a great extent, also gaining a commendable advantage in the second round. Although even provisional results of the presidential election are still not announced, it is headed for a run-off. Erdogan gained a significant advantage in the second round of the presidential election. I will only be able to make exact predictions in 2 days, but his chance of marching to victory is no less than 65%. I consider these results the worst possible outcome in terms of economy and markets for reasons I and Murat explained several times. On the other hand, the unexpectedly peaceful nature ...