Politics: Elections 2016: A closer look
Until not long ago it looked as though the PRI would have little problem winning most all of the 12 governors’ mansions that will be up for grabs the first Sunday of June. But following more than five weeks of campaigning, the races have tightened considerably, and the governing party looks to be hard pressed to make good on a recent promise by National Chairman Manlio Fabio Beltrones that it will emerge with the same number of governorships (nine of the 12) it currently holds.
The PAN and PRD hold the remaining three, which they won as part of coalitions they mounted six years ago in the states of Sinaloa, Puebla and Oaxaca, but it is unclear if they can repeat so many successes, especially the PRD, which is under threat of being relegated to a distinctly third-party status.
The PRI appears to be in a strong position to retain control over Hidalgo, Durango, and Zacatecas, and to recover Sinaloa from the PAN. Although it has failed to live up to predictions that it would be breezing to victory in Oaxaca, its weakened level of support might yet be enough given the highly fragmented state of all the other parties. The PAN’s polling numbers suggest it may hold onto Puebla and even take Veracruz, assuming it can do something to keep its nominee there from continuing to lose support because of corruption allegations. The other six contests have become, or are trending toward highly competitive races: in Aguascalientes and Tlaxcala there is a technical draw from which any of a number of candidates could emerge victorious. In Chihuahua, Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas the PRI enjoyed a clear lead just last month but the gap has closed considerably.
The complexity of the electoral challenge facing the governing party is due, in part, to the extent of the corruption prevailing in a number of states – most dramatically on display in Veracruz and Chihuahua, but also apparent in Tamaulipas and Quintana Roo – and the weakened image of President Enrique Peña Nieto, who has the lowest approval ratings of any president in recent decades.
The PAN has a good chance to retain Puebla; if it can wind up its campaign on a high note it could possibly pull off three or four more victories. Otherwise, it runs the risk of losing all but a single state. If it should take Veracruz and another state it would emerge as the biggest winner of the 2016 elections, and PAN Chairman Ricardo Anaya would emerge in a much stronger position to compete against Margarita Zavala for the 2018 presidential nomination.
The PRD is unlikely retain its last remaining bastion (Oaxaca). If it should lose the state, it would experience an intensification of the debilitating crisis it has suffered since having to compete against Morena. The impact of a loss in Oaxaca could be partially cushioned by winning Tlaxcala, hardly much of a consolation prize.
In contrast, the June elections could confirm the growing strength of Morena and its leader López Obrador, Morena, eclipsing the PRD to become the third strongest party in Durango, Puebla, Veracruz and Zacatecas.
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