Politics: Electoral process—Morena goes all in, and the INE backs it up
Mexico's 2027 electoral process, which formally began on September 10, is shaping up as far more than a routine midterm contest over 500 federal deputies, 17 governorships, and 1,800 mayoralties. For President Sheinbaum and Morena, the stakes are very high: preserving the qualified congressional majority that underwrites discretionary budget control and constitutional reform power, avoiding any sign of electoral decline that could embolden the opposition ahead of 2030, and settling the internal balance of power between Sheinbaum and AMLO's camp within the movement.
Polling shows the ruling coalition with a commanding lead over a fragmented opposition, although that lead looks less impressive against Sheinbaum's own 2024 results, a gap that appears to be driving an increasingly aggressive strategy. That strategy rests on three pillars: sustained and expanded social spending to keep the loyalty of its base; an increasingly blurred line between party and government, reinforced by a new legal tool allowing elections to be annulled on grounds of foreign interference; and an INE in which the leadership and General Council majority have grown visibly aligned with the government, drawing formal warnings from jurists and even from one of its own councilors about early campaigning, opaque personnel decisions, and the erosion of impartial oversight.
Domestically, Morena is also managing friction within its own coalition, particularly with the PT, the legislative votes of which are essential to any qualified majority but the loyalty of which is increasingly in question over unmet demands and disputed internal selection processes for state-level "coordinators". While a rupture with allies before June 2027 remains unlikely given the precedents of 2021 and 2024, the growing bargaining power of smaller allies suggests Morena will pay a higher political price to keep the coalition intact than it has in past cycles.
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