End of the Recession and Resumption of Growth

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Sep 2017 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

GDP has expanded in the past two quarters, indicating that the CODACE will likely date the end of the recession as the last quarter of 2016. As expected, on the demand side, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2017 was driven by increased household consumption, which expanded by an annualized rate of 5.5%. However, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has not yet reacted: it continues to be penalized by an obstructed credit channel and political uncertainties. In the absence of any contribution from government consumption, and in light of the difficulties regarding fixed capital investments, the intensity of growth in the next few quarters will ultimately depend on household consumption.

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