Erdogan greenlights Sweden’s NATO membership, but why?

TURKEY - In Brief 12 Jul 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkey’s ever-so-inscrutable leader Erdogan staged another phenomenal U-turn greenlighting Sweden’s NATO membership after a summit with Stoltenberg and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson. Turkish parliament is scheduled to ratify Swedish accession in a few days. On the face of it, two critical steps by Stoltenberg saved the Vilnius summit. According to Turkish press, on the other hand, Erdogan’s sudden U-turn is reflective of a desire to reanchor the country to the Western alliance. It is this last point that requires some speculation, because if it is true, it carries significant upside for business and markets. At the face of it, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg rescued the Vilnius summit by persuading Sweden to throw its weight behind closer relations between Turkey and EU. More importantly, an office for anti-terrorism will be established under the NATO auspices, presumably to investigate Turkish claims of European countries showing tolerance to PKK and pro-Gulen elements in their countries. The rewards from Erdogan’s U-turn were small but immediate. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler exchanged a phone call where presumably White House promised by support to clear Turkey’s $20 bn order for F-16s and spares through the Congress. Later, Biden met Erdogan, with the latter heralding the onset of a new era in the strategic relationship, while White House confirmed its support for F-16 order. Erdogan’ U-turn may have been motivated by council from his new Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan and chief spy Ibrahim Kalin who reportedly urged him Simsek’s goal of securing more investment from Western countries will be severely jeopardi...