​Erdogan’s proposals and HDP immunities

TURKEY - In Brief 03 Mar 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’ve received two questions from a reader, the answers to which might be of interest to my readers. These are the questions: 1) While I have a lot of sympathy with your view that Erdogan/AKP will try to push for the exec presidency at some points this year, the presidential spokesman commented last week that they may have two votes - one on updating the constitution, and a second on the exec presidency. Do you think this is a credible comment, and if so wouldn't it make it much harder for Erdogan to sneak the exec presidency through? Why would he say this? 2) In the event that tensions with the PKK/Kurds increase, and HDP deputies get their immunities lifted and some are convicted a) which court is responsible for putting them on trial - is it the CC (which is seen as reasonably credible, or an AKP crony court?) b) if HDP deputies are forced to step down, does that de facto make the size of Parliament smaller, and so easier for AKP to command a 2/3 majority (because total seats fall and the AKP's share is constant), or is it just a case of HDP putting a new MP in that place because they won that seat anyway in the elections? Regarding Mr. Ibrahim Kalin’s comments, I don’t see a significant change from the strategy I’ve outlined in my last update. AKP wants to take the question of executive presidency to a referendum with our without a new constitution and the opposition rejects this. Furthermore, CHP advanced a similar proposal, namely bringing the 60 articles of the new constitution agreed upon by the previous Constitutional Commission under the aegis of the outgoing parliament to the floor to be ratified without a referendum, which AKP rejected. This increases my sus...