Erdogan serious about entering Afrin

TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jan 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

---

President Erdogan proclaimed in the most emphatic tones used heretofore that a military operation could commence to purge Kurdish-held Afrin canton and Manbij district of Syria from terror “any minute”. Indeed, Turkish press reports massive force build-up at the Afrin border, as well as detailed invasion plans. Ankara is actually angry at U.S. plans to convert the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces militia into a regular army, trying to weaken Syrian Kurds with a double blow. The second incursion into Syria would be vastly different than the brief and fairly successful Operation Euphrates Shield. The markets are correct in selling the operation ahead of time. No discourse on Syria is simple, because there are so many moving parts and shifting alliances. In the face of it, Erdogan’s patience snapped, as terror organization PKK fully infiltrated the Kurdish administrative structures present in Western canton of Afrin, using the zone as stepping stone into Turkish Provinces of Hatay and Gaziantep. The reality is more complicated. Ankara is deeply frustrated, because in the Northwest deconfliction zone Idlib Province it is betrayed by Iran and Russia, which allow Assad’s army to push north, driving a very large wave of refugees towards Turkish border, as well as annihilating the Turkish rebel proxy Free Syrian Army (FSA) coalition. In the Northeast, U.S. is helping build an army out of the Kurdish-Arab militia called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which came to prominence by capturing Raqqa. SDF is a cover for PYD-YPG, which does represent the majority of Syrian Kurds, but is affiliated with PKK. An army of 30K American-armed militants at its border would mean persisten...