​Erdogan Years, Day One: Weak mandate for strong presidency

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Aug 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

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Good morning and Welcome to “Erdogan Years” in Turkey. I’m posting my initial thoughts at 6:00 am Turkey time so that our Asian and West European readers have some analysis to work with. The agenda of the coming days will be set by today’s central committee meetings, after which I will pen a more full bodied Market Brief. I invite all Turkey watchers to join me today at 6 pm Turkish time in a tele-conference organized by Global Source Partners. Turkey’s charismatic PM, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan achieved his life-long dream of becoming the undisputed leader of his beloved Turkey in the first round of the presidential elections, but it remains to be seen whether he can use his new post to the benefit of the country and his party, AKP. According to the non-final but official results, the three candidates scored as follows in the ballot: Erdogan: 52% Ihsanoglu: 38.4% Demirtas: %9.7 Participation at 75% was dramatically lower vis—a-vis March local elections when 90% reported to the polling stations. It appears that skeptical CHP voters stayed home, while in Central Anatolia and Black Sea regions, MHP voters drifted to Erdogan. The outcome proved once again that the Gulen Church has no influence on the polls, while the 9.5% tallied by pro-Kurdish HDP chairman Demirtas suggests that the party can substantially add to its seats in the 2015 general elections. While Erdogan scored 52%, considering the borrowed votes from MHP and the strong showing of Demirtas, an early election is very unlikely to raise its seats to a level that would allow the party to amend the constitution to grant Erdogan full powers to act as the chief executive. Focusing on the big picture, I’d like to repe...