Essential CIS Politics: April 2022
* The Ukraine conflict continues, although Russia has changed its focus from Kyiv to Donbas.
On April 22, a Russian general was quoted stating Russia's war aim in this conflict. General Minnikaev clarified what has long been suspected: that one of the main goals is to establish a land corridor to Crimea. The corridor is to stretch all the way to Moldova and thereby deprive Ukraine of its coastline.
* The Russian domestic scene is calm, with virtually no protests, and Putin's popularity is up.
A Levada opinion poll showed that the president's approval climbed from 69% in February to 83% in March 2022. This is likely due to the war. As the saying goes: no war is at first unpopular. If the war drags on for months and casualties mount, then his popularity will dip. The hopes of the West that sanctions will make Putin so unpopular that he will halt the war appear to be misguided. However, the economic pain is only just starting to be felt.
* Western countries have intensified sanctions, but the RUB has recovered.
On April 4, the US National Security pledged more sanctions on Russia. He said that the US was negotiating with the EU on a new round of sanctions. The US claims Russia has been defeated in northern Ukraine, which is why it is switching its focus to the east. Washington expects the war to last for months; the UK Foreign Secretary has suggested "years".
* Many Russian IT workers have moved to other former USSR countries.
On March 20, the Russian Association for Electronic Communications (RAEC) said that about 60,000 IT workers had left the country since February 2022. He warned that another 100,000 could leave in April. There are 1.8 million IT workers in Russia. IT workers are shifting to Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Wealthier ones go to the UAE, where Russians can stay for 30 days without a visa. The government is troubled by the brain drain. Putin announced a three-year tax holiday and soft loans for IT firms. He is offering subsidized mortgages for IT workers, and IT workers will also be excused from military service.
* The leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Brussels and made progress towards permanent peace.
On April 9, peace talks between the two former Soviet republics took place in Brussels. The EU midwifed the talks. The leaders of both countries met and expressed optimism about the talks. They agreed to establish a joint commission to delineate the border. The talks took four hours, which is a good sign in itself. The two leaders said they wished to end the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute permanently.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report