Essential CIS Politics: December 2022
* Russia has become more diplomatically isolated but has drawn close to Iran.
Russia and Iran's relationship is deepening. On November 5 Iran said it sold military drones to Russia but claims that was only before the Russia-Ukraine War began. Western countries have imposed additional sanctions on Iran, claiming that Iran sold drones to Russia in September 2022. Iran and Russia are both suffering from sanctions and are trying to help each other with this. However, relations between Iran and Russia cannot be excellent as Iran has some bad memories of Russia's presence in the country. Iranian public opinion has become negative towards Russia since the Ukraine War commenced, and there have been anti-Russian demonstrations.
* The mobilization ended in Russia but there are still a million Russians abroad.
In Q1 and Q2 2022 more than 372,000 Russians went to Armenia, more than double the number in the same period in 2021. Since the mobilization in September 2022 even more Russians moved to Armenia but data on that is not yet available. Some of the Russians who went to Armenia in 2022 went on short visits and have since returned home. On October 26 it was announced by the Kazakh government that 200,000 foreign citizens want Kazakh IDs so they can open bank accounts. This has taken place since September 21, when Russia called up 300,000 draftees. Most of the 200,000 are Russians and Belarusians. Kazakhstan has a very long border, and many Russians have gone there. Most have stayed but some have passed through to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which have a lower cost of living.
* Ukraine retook Kherson after Russia withdrew all troops.
On November 11 Russia announced that it had completed its withdrawal to the east of the River Dnipro. Kherson was the only Ukrainian regional capital that Russia managed to seize. Russia held it for almost 9 months. Ukraine's regaining it is significant, although potentially more for political reasons than militarily.
* Azerbaijan and Armenia held talks in the US.
On November 8 the two Caucasus nations met in Washington to try to resolve their border dispute. In the past week there has been shooting across the ceasefire line. The US Secretary of State met with representatives of both countries.
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