Essential CIS Politics: October 16 - November 2, 2026
Key topics:
* Ukrainian forces completed Operation Vivaldi under Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi and restored control over 277 square kilometers north of Lyman.
* Putin stated that Russian troops had established control over Dobropole, but Ukrainian officials rejected the claim and asserted that the city remained under Ukrainian control.
* Ukrainian authorities deferred UAH 39 bn of capital expenditure on bomb shelters and energy grid protection until December due to funding shortfalls.
* Ukrainian defense authorities report that speed restrictions on Starlink and Starshield connections have been lifted after an eleven-day period of limitation that had affected high-speed drone operations.
* Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara calls on European partners to transfer 10 percent of their existing stockpiles of interceptors for the Patriot and IRIS-T systems.
* Reports indicate that Ukrainian units had received instructions in mid-October to suspend strikes on Russian refineries until after the US midterm elections, although Ukrainian officials later stated that no such formal order had been given.
* China announces revised export controls on drones and related technologies that will take effect on November 18 and expand scrutiny of engines, motors, autopilots and navigation systems.
* Trump states that Zelensky should obtain another person to conduct negotiations on ending the war while Zelensky responded that the US sought Ukrainian capitulation through delays in Starlink and Patriot systems.
* Ukrainian and European leaders hold consultations in Oslo where the Ukrainian side, but not Russia, accepts an American proposal for an energy ceasefire.
* Zelensky confirms that negotiating teams from Ukraine, the US and Russia will meet in Abu Dhabi after November 10 following Russia’s agreement in principle. The date is later set for November 4.
* European leaders contact Putin after consultations with Ukrainian and American sides.
* A 28-point American framework for peace was revealed, including an investment program and the prospect of European Union membership for Ukraine in exchange for abandonment of a NATO bid. Zelensky states that the US had proposed demilitarized zones in Donbas and on part of the Kinburn Spit and that Ukraine was prepared to discuss a buffer on both sides of the line of contact without surrendering territory.
* Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Fedienko estimates that 500,000 soldiers were absent from their units, two and a half times the last official government figure of 200,000. Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi ordered an audit and asked the Security Service of Ukraine and military intelligence to establish how many servicemen were absent and how many men were not accounted for on the military register.
* Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR expressed interest in resuming natural gas purchases from Russia’s Gazprom although no specific plans or volumes were provided.
* Trump waives nearly all substantive sanctions, tariffs and restrictions included in the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 before they took effect on October 18.
* Chinese Premier Li Qiang arrives in St Petersburg at the invitation of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to attend the 31st regular meeting between the heads of government of China and Russia.
* Hungary refuses to approve the screening results for negotiating Clusters 4 and 5 within the framework of Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.
* The Ukrainian National Anti-Corruption Bureau searches the premises of Andriy Pyshnyi, head of the National Bank of Ukraine, and the home of one of its employees, although no one is detained or charged.
* On October 21, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control removes Andrei Rybakov, general director of state potash giant Belaruskali, from its Specially Designated Nationals list amidst Belarusian-US engagement on potash deliveries.
* Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signs a law revising Uzbekistan’s Latin-based alphabet that mandates the introduction of a revised alphabet on April 22, 2027.
* Mirziyoyev reviews plans for a new city, New Qarshi, on a 5,200-hectare site in Qashqadaryo Region designed to eventually accommodate one million residents.
* A tanker carrying 40,000 tonnes of Russian diesel heads toward New York after the Trump administration announced a temporary waiver of sanctions on Russian diesel sold to the global market through April 2027.
* Kazakhstan strikes a 27-year deal with Iran to build and operate a cargo terminal at the country’s largest commercial port, Shahid Rajaee, located beside Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.
* Moscow, Beijing and Washington are ready in principle to hold the first trilateral summit of Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping.
* Zelensky extends martial law and general mobilization until January 29, 2027, and the Rada passed both bills the same day.
* Trump administration considers lifting sanctions on Russia’s flagship state investment fund, the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
* Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announces that Ethiopia received 12 Russian Su-35 fighter jets and will acquire four S-400 air defense batteries.
* Armenian parliament ratifies a framework agreement with the US to develop the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a transit project intended to reopen regional connections.
* Armenian media reported that the health of Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan had significantly deteriorated in recent weeks and that he had not participated in planned events including the COP-17 climate summit.
* Russian and Ukrainian authorities state that hundreds of residents of the devastated city of Oleshky had been evacuated under a humanitarian ceasefire that had been in force in the frontline region of Kherson.
* Russia’s FSB security service stated that it was carrying out appropriate measures after the US embassy in Moscow warned of a planned terrorist attack at the Tsaritsyno Museum and later announced the detention of a teenage Russian citizen.
* US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the US invitation of Russia to G20 meetings while European diplomats refused to take the traditional G20 photo with Sergei Lavrov.
* On November 2, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announces that Armenia’s government intends to publish a draft of the country’s new Constitution in November, followed by public consultations.
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