Essential CIS Politics: October 2022
• Russia has ordered at least 300,000 reservists to be mobilized.
Flights to Serbia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Georgia, the UAE, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, countries Russians can enter without a visa, sold out quickly after the announcement. Many young men are desperate to go abroad in case they are called up. Kazakhstan said it shall only grant residency to Russian men whom it has confirmed are not wanted for military service. Many Russians have crossed the border to Finland, which is considering banning almost all Russians from entering the country.
• Ukraine’s counter-offensive has retaken over 8,000 km squared; the country applies to NATO.
Since September 6 and over the last month, Ukraine claims to have retaken 8,500 km. This is probably an exaggeration, but not necessarily a major one. Some of the gains have been significant and strategically critical on a short-term and localized basis.
• Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended in 150 deaths.
On September 12, Armenia invoked its defensive alliance with Russia. There were several exchanges of fire and both Azerbaijan and Armenia claimed to have killed enemy soldiers. As we havementioned, the Ukraine war is a golden opportunity for Azerbaijan to take land from Armenia. Russia cannot spare the troops or equipment to help Armenia, and Moscow dare not offend Azerbaijan or Turkey.
• Skirmishing between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan killed 94 people.
On September 18 it was reported that 94 people were killed in a few days of skirmishes with Tajikistan. There is a shaky ceasefire. Water is a very touchy issue in the region. Neither country has enough for farming and hydroelectricity. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan both have Russian bases. Both are CSTO members. Moscow called for a cessation in hostilities but has refused to take sides.
• Russia cut off gas supplies to the EU, as the Nord Stream pipeline is damaged – possibly fatally.
On October 2, Gazprom said it could not send gas to Austria for technical reasons. This is usually the excuse used when supplies are stopped for political reasons.
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