“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 08 May 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

Copom provoked no surprise with its decision to hike the target for the benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, from 14.25% to 14.75% per year. However, more than the decision itself, the main interest of “Copom Watchers” lay in the possible signaling regarding the next steps in monetary policy—particularly whether the Committee intends to continue the process of raising the Selic rate, or if it is already prepared to bring the cycle to an end.

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