Exit-polls: Pro-Reformist Majority Looks Secured

UKRAINE - In Brief 26 Oct 2014 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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The voters, which were indecisive (near 1/3 of voters), indeed delivered surprises. Block of Petro Poroshenko was reported only slightly above "Narodny front" (Arseniy Yatsenyuk). "Sylna Ukraina" of Sergey Tigipko is out. Communist party also did not pass 5% barrier. At the same time "Samopomitch" (Andriy Sadovyy, Lviv city mayor) and ultra-nationalist “Svoboda” performed much better than expected. Also “Opposition block” (former Party of Region MPs) surprised with high support. This layout promises strong pro-Western and pro-reformist majority at the parliament. In fact five parties (Block of Petro Poroshenko, "Narodny front", "Samopomitch", "Svoboda" and "Batkivshchyna") share pro-European values and can create even constitutional majority (near 374 seats) assuming majoritarian vote will be close to the general results. However, the big question what kind of game Petro Poroshenko would like to play with such result. The problem is that Poroshenko team is in conflict with Yatsenyuk team and there were wide discussion that Poroshenko wants his protégé, vice-prime-minister Volodymyr Groysman, to overtake the prime-minister seat after elections. Now it looks like compiling majority without Yatsenyuk might be a complicated task. Alliance with "Samopomitch" will not give the majority. Relying on "Svoboda" and Tymoshenko is a risky story given that both of them might request too much for ‘golden share’. What more, reluctance to build the team with Yatsenyuk (when people have been voting for him to keep him as prime-minister) might have strong negative effect on Poroshenko’s image. All in all disregard apparent Poroshenko’s reluctance to share power with Yatsenyuk, it looks ...