Exports and Economic Activity

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 17 Oct 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

In our last Weekly Report, we warned that the latest economic activity indicators – especially for industry – suggest another contraction of GDP in the third quarter. This result is partly due to the weakening of exports, raising the suspicion that it is a consequence of the appreciation of the real exchange rate. We don’t deny that a slightly stronger real exchange rate has contributed to the worse performance of exports of manufactures. But this is not the most important cause of the poor performance of Brazil’s exports; the main cause is the weak performance of overall global trade. There are no indications of change in this pattern, so this is another reason we expect very slow recovery of economic activity in Brazil.

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