Exports: macro vs micro

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 22 Apr 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The WTO projects a 0.2 % drop in global trade volume in 2025, and the decline could be larger if reciprocal tariffs materialize—prompting downward revisions to Brazil’s export outlook. In addition, a slowing world economy is likely to push many commodity prices lower, as seen in recent weeks. The main exception is soybeans: prices at Brazilian ports have held up and could even rise, boosted by an intensifying U.S.–China trade war. In this setting, Brazil could increase shipments to China, especially of goods that compete directly with U.S. exports, such as soybeans. Agribusiness is poised to be the chief beneficiary.

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