Extending the SoE is a bad idea

TURKEY - In Brief 02 Oct 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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After a week abroad (which caused me to skip the Weekly Tracker on Sunday), I returned to Turkey amidst rumors of a second coup plot, which were taken seriously by the government. Interior Minister Mr. Suleyman Soylu bravely claimed that potential plotters would feel “the baton of justice” on their heads. While some experts suggest there is still some Gulenist elements hidden in the Armed Forces and intelligence services (the latter judging by the ongoing detentions), I strongly doubt Gulenists have the bare minimum of personnel left to try a second time. Yet, the rumors are an illustration of the paranoia engulfing Turkey, which shall continue until Pastor Gulen is somehow “interned” in the U.S. It is also possible that the rumors were fabricated by pro-AKP trolls to provide a justification for the 3 month extension of the State of the Emergency (SoE), for which legislation ought to be submitted to the parliament this week. In as much as I agree with the administration that the Gulenist threat and the requisite purge are by no means over, prolonging the SoE is a bad idea, in particular in light of comments by President Erdogan that it might last 12 months or longer. Let me cite the side effects: Whether orchestrated by AKP or not, the examples of innocents sacked or arrested keeps rising exponentially, alienating non-AKP voters. I read the conservative press religiously, where back-stabbing and informing on each other are becoming the norm. AKP’s constituency might be fracturing under the pressure of the purge. While recent economic sentiment indicators display a recovery, it is hard to imagine consumption or capex rising, when the threat of large scale arrests and co...