Politics: The extent of the next legislative majority and AMLO’s "Plan C"—two transcendental issues

MEXICO - Report 17 Jun 2024 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

In the wake of the June 2 federal elections, the composition of the next Congress and López Obrador’s "Plan C" proposal to reform the Judiciary have emerged as the two main points of political debate. Morena lawmakers have announced that the open parliament discussions on the judiciary that virtual President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum recently suggested are likely to get underway in the coming days in preparation for AMLO’s push during his final month in office to pass the reforms once the new Congress convenes on September 1. And the exact composition of that Congress, and whether the incumbent coalition will have the necessary two-thirds majority to pass and ratify those reforms on its own is a matter that now lies in the hands of the electoral authorities, who must decide whether to apply the Constitution to the letter or once again hand a Morena-led coalition a super majority bonus as they did in 2018.

How they decide will determine not only the direction of the Sheinbaum administration but also radically modify the country’s entire political regime. We will have to wait until August, when the INE announces how the proportional representation seats are to be distributed, to find out, but the simple prospect of such a scenario has already rattled investors, taking a toll on the peso and Mexico’s stock exchange.

This week, we analyze how the election authorities are likely to rule and the extent of the transformations a Morena super majority could achieve.

Now read on...

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