​Fakhrizadeh killing could speed lifting of sanctions if Iran shows restraint

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 02 Dec 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

If Iran maintains strategic patience in responding to the killing of its nuclear scientist, despite pressure from hardliners in parliament, the incident should actually increase the urgency of the Biden Administration in quickly restoring the JCPOA, our baseline scenario. However, if there are further attacks and a cycle of escalation, future negotiations will become more difficult from both the US and Iranian side. The oil market doesn’t appear to have priced in any particular impact as of yet. The Saudi response highlights and adds to tense relations with Iran.

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