Falling inflation and asymmetry of risks

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Mar 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

Inflation is continuing to fall, and even if the SELIC rate is cut again by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting, taking it to 6.5%, inflation will be well below the target in 2018, and close 2019 at 4.25%. There are risks in both directions, but at this moment the most likely scenario for 2018 is that inflation will hover around the lower bound of the target interval, raising the probability that the monetary easing cycle will be a bit more pronounced.

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