Famous Last Words: As luck would have it…

TURKEY - In Brief 11 May 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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It is time to say my final words, which are going to be substantially different than my comments in the last Weekly. I’ve always believed Erdogan’s greatest asset wasn’t his charisma, ruthlessness or the Machiavellian tactical intelligence, but luck. The last minute decision by protest candidate Muharrem Ince to withdraw from the race suggests Erdogan’s luck had finally run out. Short of staging a proper military coup between now and the formal certification of the election results, all of his paths to victory are blocked. His alliance, the Republican (RA, Kilicdaroglu’s alliance = NA) still stands a tiny chance (no more than 20%) to win a simple majority in the Grand Assembly, which would allow him to cling to power for a while, but now it is more likely than not the rival NA is closer to pulling a surprise there. Since the beginning of my election coverage, I’ve almost exclusively relied on poll results and expert opinion in my conclusions, trying to keep “me” out of my analysis as much as it is humanly possible. In my final words, too, I shy away from my gut feelings, merely re-basing my scenarios on the results of two critical polls by Metropoll and KONDA as well as comments about how Ince’s withdrawal could affect the presidential race. In other words I’m as certain about my predictions, as the science of statistics would take me. You take that statement any way you wish. I attach greater weight to Metropoll and KONDA than other polling agencies, not because their forecasting record is significantly better than the average (it is), but because the CEOs of both have maintained impartiality in their public comments. In polls shared with public on Thursday, both find...