​Father Brunson’s fate tells many tales

TURKEY - In Brief 26 Jul 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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Dual elections and the excruciating summer heat didn’t bring tranquility to Turkish politics or peace of mind to the long-suffering political analyst of GSP- Turkey team, who is selflessly sacrificing his vacation to serve his audience. On Wednesday, a Turkish court suddenly ruled to remand Pastor Andrew Brunson to house arrest “on account of health problems”. Of the many tales which swirl around the incident, this is the one that is the least credible. This market brief explores the reasons behind Ankara’s sudden volta-face.While I’m at it, I also touch upon a few topics in the boiling cauldron of domestic politics, such as the resignation/retirement from politics of IYIP chairwoman Mrs. Aksener and the Medium Term Economic Program currently in progress. Why the sudden leniency for Brunson? There are three theories. Frist, this is the sacrifice to markets which rebelled after CBRT passed up a rate hike, having no further political implications.It is possible, but not probable. The second theory is that Ankara was alarmed by a Senate proposal to urge multi-nationals to refrain from financing its projects and wished to appease American wrath. The third theory is that a behind-the-scenes deal has been cut to trade Brunson’s freedom for potential penalties against Halkbank. It is very important to distinguish between the two, because the first suggests Ankara yielded under American pressure, while the second implies exactly the opposite, pointing to radically different futures for Turko-American relations. In any case, house arrest is not enough, as Secretary of State Pompeo declared to his Turkish counterpart. A full pardon or deportation from Turkey will be required as ...