Final pre-election snapshot
The final GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters ahead of Sunday’s presidential election shows Andrés Manuel López Obrador retaining his comfortable lead, with the support of 35% of those surveyed and a wide lead over all his competitors, while the battle for second place has tightened considerably. In the last few weeks of campaigning, the Institutional Revolutionary Party-led coalition candidate José Antonio Meade has regained lost ground, but only enough to climb back to the 21% level of support he registered at the very outset of this contest. In contrast, Ricardo Anaya has failed to generate any additional support during this final stretch of the race and now faces the threat of being pushed into third place by Meade, who is apparently enjoying a bounce as the PRI pulls out all the stops to try to bolster its chances in the congressional and municipal contests. Much will depend on what the roughly 20% of voters who were still undecided as of last week’s poll decide to do on July 1.
López Obrador’s National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party has consolidated its dominance in congressional races, with his three-party coalition poised to win as many as 46% of Senate seats, followed by the PRI-PVEM-NA alliance with 27%, and the PAN-PRD-MC coalition at 25%.
In Chamber of Deputies races it appears that the Morena-led coalition will fall short of a simple majority by 13 seats and that the PRI and its alliance will be the second largest voting bloc. But López Obrador might yet be able to assemble a majority bloc with some of the politicians likely to make it into the lower chamber from the PRD (a once major party that will apparently be reduced to a symbolic presence in the next Congress) as well as from the small farmer and neighborhood/small business constituencies of the PRI and PAN.
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