​Final Words: CHP-IYIP have wind in their sails

TURKEY - In Brief 28 Mar 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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It is time to spell out my final predictions on Sunday’s municipal elections. Before I cut to the chase, a few words on my method and thought process needs to be said, because covering this election campaign was a harrowing experience. Since the 2010 referendum, I used a trimmed mean of poll results as my guide, carefully avoiding the temptation to “outperform” the collective wisdom of the industry.With the exception of October 2015 and 2018 presidential elections, this method worked fairly well. This elections were difficult, because until the last minute theopinion leaders of the polling industry KONDA, Metropoll, SONAR and ANAR shied away from publishing results. When KONDA and SONAR commented in public on the results, these turned about to be contradictory to each other. Additionally, each polling company adopted a different format (some conducted city, other nation-wide polls) and most didn’t bother to release raw results (i.e. results without undecideds allocated to parties), which were in the past my most important tools in making judgement calls. In the absence of sufficient poll data and a means of standardizing them, I had to resort to anecdotal data more than my audience is used to.These consist of AKP’s actions and statements, comments by reliable columnists and news articles on trends. As far as “acts of desperation” goes, AKP’s draconian restrictions on swap markets to prevent another currency meltdown and the broadening of subsidized food sales to large supermarket chains (both extremely damaging to the economy in the medium-term) are sure-fire signs of how much it needs the undecided voter. It will take a doctoral thesis to lay out all my evidence and c...