First notes on the Mexican election

MEXICO - In Brief 02 Jul 2018 by Esteban Manteca

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The victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador was bigger than anticipated: according to the quick count made by the National Electoral Institute (INE), he obtained 53% of the votes, 31 percentage points more than Ricardo Anaya, candidate of the coalition For Mexico to the Front and 38 points more than José Antonio Meade, the PRI candidate. This is the most comfortable victory in a presidential race since 1982.Lopez Obrador's triumph created a bandwagon effect. His coalition will in all likelihood end up with an absolute majority in both houses of Congress. According to early estimates, MORENA and its allied parties could obtain approximately 270 federal deputies and 68 senators. With those numbers, Lopez Obrador would have a comfortable legislative majority, enough to pass normal legislation. Moreover he would be 63 and 21 votes away in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, respectively, from a two-thirds majority (the threshold for constitutional reform).Additionally, López Obrador's coalition won gubernatorial races in at least 5 states: CDMX, Morelos, Tabasco, Chiapas and Veracruz. There is still the possibility of a victory in Puebla, but, for now, the trends suggest that the Front candidate will end up winning the race by a narrow margin. These triumphs at the state level will be complemented by the conquest of important city governments (Naucalpan, Tlanepantla, Puebla, Hermosillo, etc.). To top it off, the obradorista forces seem to have obtained the majority in 16 of the 27 local legislatures that were in dispute.The first post-election hours have been smooth. The losing candidates acknowledged their defeat at an early hour. President Enrique Peña Nieto congratul...