​First Update: No earthquake, just tremors

TURKEY - In Brief 31 Mar 2019 by Atilla Yesilada

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At 21:30 Turkish time the outcome of the municipal elections is shaping up gradually, though at least in 7 provinces it is too close to call the results. The province-based tally is as follows:AKP is ahead in 39, CHP 20, MHP 10 and HDP 8 provinces.The rebel province of Tunceli could choosea communist mayor. In Istanbul, AKP candidate Mr. Yildirim has posted a twitter photo of himself penning down his victory speech, being ahead by 2 percentage point in polls with 87% of the ballots counted. The difference in votes with CHP’s Mr. Imamoglu is only 180K, which is statistically insignificant given the huge size of Istanbul.However, I’d be extremely surprised if Yildirim were to lose. On the other hand, CHP is already laying the groundwork for a challenge. Izmir is a foregone conclusion. AKP never had a chance. In Ankara CHP-IYIP candidateMr. Yavas is 2 points ahead of Mr. Ozhaseki and is slated to win. Moving to Anatolia, the AKP-MHP alliance produced some results in mixed-population cities of North East and East, pushing pro-Kurdish HDP back.MHP seems to be performing better than expected in Central Anatolia.Beyond that, it is all CHP, probably thanks to the assist by IYIP.CHP may lose the Black Sea town of Zonguldak and the Marmara town of Yalova. On the other side of the ledger, it is very close to victories in Antalya and Adana.Mersin and Balikesir are too close too call.CHP retained Eskisehir, but appears to be losing a bitter battle toAKP in Bursa, where it had led in most polls.Surprisingly, it is winning 2 cities in the Black Sea region, and two in West-Central Anatolia, as far as I can tell from diffuse and haphazard TV coverage of the event. I need to remind my a...