Following last week's hike, tightening path expected to be gradual

ISRAEL - Report 03 Dec 2018 by Jonathan Katz

Policy rates moved higher last week (as we had expected but against market consensus), pushing bond yields higher. We expect the tightening path in 2019 to be very gradual (we see rates at 0.5% by end-2019), and dependent on Fed tightening. Private consumption (non-durables especially) indicators point to some deceleration in 2018. We have revised our inflation forecast downwards to 0.8% NTM on the back of lower global energy prices.

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