Forecast update

CHILE - Report 14 Sep 2015 by Igal Magendzo, Robert Funk and Alberto Etchegaray

A great deal of water has flowed under the bridge since our last forecast, so we decided to update it. In a nutshell: we expect lower growth and higher inflation for the next two years (at least). We are not alone. Consensus Forecasts, the government and the Central Bank have moved in the same direction.

We revised down our GDP growth forecasts for 2015, 2016 and 2017. We now expect GDP to grow a meager 2.0 % this year and 2.5% next year. We are slightly more pessimistic than consensus, and far more pessimistic than the Central Bank, especially for 2016.

Now read on...

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