Forecasting in a time of Knightian uncertainty

TURKEY - Report 03 Apr 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Given the extremely fluid and uncertain backdrop, we mainly focus on the very near term and share some illustrative forecasts, in a Q&A format, postponing our flagship quarterly/forecast report to later this month, with our deepest apologies.

Contrary to numerous accounts accusing Turkey of becoming a heaven for Russian funds and oligarchs’ wealth, the evidence is slim to non-existent. More broadly, the economic damage from the Russia-Ukraine War is huge – and increasing as we speak – while whatever purported “benefits” may accrue are either too trifling to mention or are back-loaded. In fact, the politics author’s verdict is that Turkey remains the biggest loser from the War in the region.

Now read on...

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