Politics: Foreign policy and national security omissions of the Mexican government in a critical context
Mexico's development horizon, based on economic integration with the United States, entered a crisis starting with Trump's first presidency (2016-2020). His administration questioned NAFTA and migration, coming to perceive Mexico not as a reliable partner, but as a threat on multiple fronts, with the border between the U.S. and Mexico considered the primary U.S. internal security risk due to the lethal trafficking of fentanyl, the violence of Mexican cartels, and mass irregular migration from multiple regions.
In this context, the Mexican government has demonstrated a lack of capacity to respond to the threats and potential measures a future Trump administration could implement. It dismantled its national security policy and scaled back its international presence starting under the López Obrador government. Consequently, Mexico's response has been reactive and largely passive: conceding to demands such as deploying the National Guard as a migration barrier at the borders, implementing extra-legal handovers of drug traffickers, and avoiding confrontation. While this has managed to postpone tariffs higher than those imposed on other countries, it has failed to reduce structural vulnerabilities or establish alternative alliances.
Mexican foreign policy is weak, perceived as contradictory (supporting Latin American dictatorships while simultaneously seeking closer ties with the U.S.), isolationist, distanced from multilateral forums and organizations, and plagued by crises in the embassies and consulates that should be priorities in the current complicated context. Faced with Trump's aggressive policy and accelerating geopolitical changes, the Mexican government is facing grave risks without adequate institutional tools or strategic vision.
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