​Foreign Policy: Victory in Libya amidst trouble in Syria

TURKEY - In Brief 11 Jun 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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Since the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, I’ve steadily reduced my coverage of foreign policy.This wasn’t because Turkey was not doing anything new, but because what transpired “abroad” had little pertinence for economy, markets or the equilibrium in domestic politics. This state of affairs continue, but the partial victory for pro-Turkey Government of National Accord against General Haftar and the resumption of Russian air raids in Idlib targeting pro-Turkey (and mostly fundamentalist) rebel groups could impact Turkey’s relations with Russia and US. The story in Libya is rather straightforward. The world media acknowledges that Syrian rebels dispatched by Turkey as well as special forces units, but mostly importantly Turkey’s new armed drones have tilted the scale in favor of NGA head al Sarraj. NGA forces are now in complete control of Tripoli, and have chased away Haftar’s forces from neighboring towns, which were used as supply or forward bases.Media reports suggest there is discord in Haftar ranks, and he is ready to accept a cease-fire which would preserve its hegemony over Western Libya.Turkey is currently not keen on a cease-fire, but according to President Erdogan, he had agreed with Trump on "some issues" about Libya and that GNA would continue fighting till it controls Sirte and Jufra airbase. This statement suggests that neither Turkey nor NGA are particularly interested in total conquest, but want enough elbow room to create a sustainable peace accord.To remind our readers, Turkey’s reason for rushing to the aid of al Sarraj is a Treaty of Exclusive Economic Zones, which substantially expands Turkey’s claim to Mediterranean waters. It doesn’t matter that U...