​FPV desertion ahead of debt restructuring agreement

ARGENTINA - In Brief 07 Feb 2016 by Esteban Fernandez Medrano

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The recent desertion of 12 congressional representatives from the Kirchnerist party “Frente para la Victoria” (FPV) to form, together with other 3 dissident peronists, a 15 man strong non-K Peronist block (Bloque Justicialista - BJ), might not be very surprising. We anticipated such political shifts in previous reports after Scioli’s defeat in the presidential election (see monthly “Alea iacta est” Dec 2015). However, the size, direction and timing of such shift are still relevant news. With this move, FPV lost its status of first minority in the Lower House and the privileges that go with it (heading more Congress commissions, more national auditors, etc.), which will now go to the governing alliance. It also replies the question on where the government might find more “reasonable” political counterparts to negotiate the quorum in the Lower House. The government (Alianza Cambiemos - AC) should have an easier time to press bills through the Deputies, negotiating with UNA and the BJ, rather than with FPV. With 91 congressional representatives, AC remains quite far away of the 129 votes hurdle. Before the FPV desertion, even if the government obtained the support of all non-K Peronists, it would still have been a couple of votes short of achieving the quorum. Without the support of FPV, they would have needed additional votes from other left-leaned parties, such as the Socialists. The direction of the split is also a relevant fact. Rather than joining Massa’s anti-K Peronist UNA, the former FPV deputies decided to form a new peronist block by themselves. In fact, one of the new members of the BJ is a former UNA deputy and political readings go in the sense that BJ might ...